After lose controller of their decommissioned blank space post Tiangong-1 last year , the Chinese space program foretell that the place isslowly ram back to Earthin a decay compass . The precise timing and location of this draw out dying is nearly impossible to predict , but it now seems likely that it will pass off towards the end of March or beginning of April .
It is not in any way strange for space junk to fall back to Earth , as satellites that have ended their lifespanfrequently re - move into the aura . But these are often small or design in a way of life that means they are more likely to burn up up in the atmosphere , minimizing the jeopardy of big chuncks hitting the terra firma .
The remainder with Tiangong-1 is its size . The space station weighs around8,600 kilograms ( 19,000 pounds)and is made of dense material , thus increasing the likeliness that some strong bits of the craft might make it down to the surface still integral . Usually for such large craftiness , the operator use thruster to check the re - entry to make certain it occurs over water system . However , as the Chinese have lost control of it , the guile is now in freefall .
“ You really ca n’t channelize these things , ” Harvard astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell toldThe Guardianlast year . “ Even a couple of days before it re - enters we probably wo n’t eff better than six or seven hours , plus or minus , when it ’s work to come down . Not have it off when it ’s going to come down translates as not knowing where it ’s go bad to fare down . ”
The only affair known for sure so far is that it will gate-crash down somewhere between 43 stage North and 43 point South parallel . Most of this area is breed by weewee , meaning that the chance it will off ground is low and the odds it will crash into a resolution even modest .
This , however , has n’t stopped people from trying to auspicate where it might touch down . The website Satview , which track the location of orbiter as they whizz around our major planet , postedan update this weekas to what their best estimate it .
According to their forecast , Tiangong-1 will in all probability re - enter in around three months , with their rather exact prediction being Wednesday , April 4 , at 15:36 UTC . This , it almost goes without saying , should be taken with a pinch of salt , as there can be a host of outside factors that could alter it . But , if Satview are indeed correct , it means that re - entry would occur over land despite all betting odds , with Venezuela and Colombia being in the firing line .
As if it has n’t been said enough already , the decaying orbit is incredibly irregular . We ’ll just have to waitress and see what materialize .
