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New Zealand has a 30 percent chance of being strike by a major earthquake in the next 50 years , researchers say after developing a new , millennium - long history of earthquakes in the neighborhood .
For more than a century , scientists have suspected that major temblor go back relatively on a regular basis at major faults , such aswhere architectonic plates meet . However , farsighted records of earthquakes along such faults are rarefied , make this idea gruelling to prove .
The island nation of New Zealand as seen by NASA
Now scientist have developed an 8,000 - year history of major temblor at a site along theAlpine fault in New Zealand , that country ’s interlingual rendition of California’sSan Andreas defect .
" Really great earthquakes that pass quite infrequently can be tracked over many thousands of long time by using in high spirits - resolution geologic study , " state researcher Kelvin Berryman , a geologist at GNS Science in Lower Hutt , New Zealand . " The repetition clock time for these events , at least on some shift , is quite unconstipated . "
Their finding , detail online June 27 in the diary Science , suggest southern New Zealand may see a powerful temblor presently .
The island nation of New Zealand as seen by NASA
Layered earthquake record
Investigators used carbon dating to determine the ages of leaves and ejaculate that were buried by silt each time a major quake struck a site along the west coast of the South Island . The layers of silt were deposited when Hokuri Creek was temporarily dammed by a aerofoil rupture of the fault , which runs 530 miles ( 850 km ) along the length of the South Island .
The researchers line up that 24 earthquake come about at closely regular separation over the preceding 8,000 geezerhood . The shortestinterval between quakeswas about 100 years , the long interval was about 500 years , and the average was about 330 years .
The scientists figure that late events were between magnitudes of 7.6 to 8.3 .
" To augur where and when future major earthquakes will come about , we require a good statistical sample distribution of the past record of these big events , " Berryman told OurAmazingPlanet . " Records such as we have obtained from the Alpine fault are one such disk . "
The last major earthquake on the Alpine fault come 295 year ago , suggest southern New Zealand may well bedue for another quakesoon .
What ’s the risk ?
The South Island has far few inhabitants than New Zealand ’s North Island , but researcher say an earthquake there could have a direct impingement on tens of M of people .
" There are about 1 million people in the whole of the South Island , mostly on the east glide , more than 100 kilometers [ 60 miles ] from the fault , " Berryman say . " The universe of the orbit probable to be hard bear upon by the future Alpine fault earthquake is about 40,000 to 50,000 , although there are major tourist destination in the region as well . "
" If not in our life , then [ an temblor is ] more and more likely in our children ’s or our grandchild ’s — therefore a precautionary approach is surely warranted , " Berryman said . " The important things for authorities are to boost personal and household readiness , to accost earthquake - prostrate building tenancy in the good field of the fault , and to encourage preparedness action at law among pinch services and respond agencies . "
Future research should run for other sites along the Alpine faulting so that the resolution based chiefly on a single site can be validated at others , the researchers take down .
" The challenge in this is finding appropriate sites where prospicient criminal record of past flaw movements can be found and where deposit preserving the platter can be dated , " Berryman said . " The strong-arm environs along the Alpine geological fault is very challenging , with one-year rain of 5 to 8 meters [ 16 to 26 feet ] ; steep slopes along the pile front with angles of 45 arcdegree that are prone to landsliding , which obscures the fault in many placement ; tight - move river carrying common gravel that are hard to date ; and blockheaded rainforest . "
