A celebrated systems idealogue has predicted that human refinement is on the verge of a “ giant leap ” . This saltation could see us embracing “ networked overmuch ” , but it may yet be queer by the advance of nationalist populism .
In a new cogitation , investigatory journalist and donnish Nafeez Ahmed has argued that the public is confront unprecedented crisis . “ Industrial civilization is face ' inevitable ' decline as it is supercede by what could twist out to be a far more advance ‘ postmaterialist ’ civilization based on mete out superabundant clean energy ” , Ahmed explained in astatement . “ The main challenge is that industrial civilisation is facing such rapid decline that this could jump the emergence of a newfangled and superior ' life - cycle ' for the human specie "
There is small traverse that human race is facing an unprecedented set ofinterrelatedchallenges . Of naturally , historyis filled withvarious crisis – but the unmingled global scale of the present situation , its interrelatedness , and the potential for these challenges to all be magnify by one another makes this something different . In essence , we are progressively realising that a crisis in one part of the global system can rapidly feed back and get government issue in other parts .
However , this theoretical account for how to understand the current situation and see succeeding changes is still underdeveloped and miss path to empirically baseborn farsightedness perspectives . At the moment , foresight methods have been limited by disciplinal specialization , even though the scientific community is increasingly mindful that it need larger - scale , transdisciplinary thinking to translate it right .
In his new composition , Ahmed offers a massive campaign to synthesize vast amounts of scientific lit across the rude and social skill to render a raw theory of the cost increase and dip of civilisation . He argue that civilizations germinate through a four - stage process comprise of growth , stability , fall , and transformation . This life sentence - cycle , he lay claim , encompasses both fabric - technological and cultural - organisational change across time .
Today , industrial civilization is moving through what Ahmed believes is its last stage – decay – and soon could enter into the translation phase . In particular , Ahmed use immense amount of empirical data to suggest that a whole Modern material - technical system could come out across the world that will replace the old industrial order .
There is , Ahmed save , “ [ c]ompelling grounds that industrial civilization is moving into the final reorganization level of its adaptive rhythm ” which can be “ gleaned from empiric data point across foundational sectors of material production , demo simultaneous interlink phase angle transition in Department of Energy , raptus , solid food and selective information . ”
The fossil fuel industry is facing a decay due to various factors , which are appropriate Modern “ disruptive ” renewable energy technology to emerge , such as solar photovoltaics , wind turbines , and battery storage . All these technologies are experiencing important price decline and “ exponentially increasing adoption rates ” .
Solar , wind , and batteries are propose to disrupt , reign , and transform the world-wide vigor system within the next two decade . At the same time , food for thought yield , transport , and artificial intelligence are all typeset to experience similar forward motion and changes , with maturation in cellular agriculture , electric vehicles , and computing machine processing .
take together , and if cautiously designed , these newfangled textile capability could make Modern shape of “ internet superabundance ” that protect the solid ground and its system .
Dangers are ever-present
While these projection may look positive , Ahmed warn that there is still significant space for retrogression to fall out , with disastrous implication .
He reason that the increase in authoritarian politics – such as the incoming presidency of Donald Trump , as well as reactionary efforts to protect fossil fuels – could undermine and imperil culture .
As new technologies go forth to disrupt the exist fiat , they are nevertheless distributed and decentralized in a way that can not be govern by the old centralize industrial hierarchies . This is increasingly leading to a broaden gulf between what Ahmed calls the “ industrial operating organisation ” – the old social club – and the emerge system . This results major political and ethnical disruptions across the world and could cause the raise of tyranny to push back , preventing a transition to a new life story - cycle .
“ An awing young possibility distance is emerging , where humanity could render itself superabundant energy , transport , food and noesis without hurting the world . This could be the next giant saltation in human evolution ” , Ahmed excuse .
“ But if we flush it to genuinely develop as humans by rewire how we regulate these emerging capabilities responsibly and for the benefit of all , they could be our unfastening . or else of evolve , we would regress – if not collapse . The rise in dictatorial and far - right administration around the worldly concern , increases this grave peril of collapse . The incoming Donald Trump administration , with its commitment to elevating fossil fuels while gutting sporty vigour – as well as its focus on centralizing power along ethnonationalist line of work – could prevent us successfully go through the planetary phase angle shift to the next stage of human evolution . ”
The paper is put out in the journalForesight .
